@PhDThesis{Firpo:2012:InReTS,
author = "Firpo, M{\'a}ri {\^A}ndrea Feldman",
title = "Influ{\^e}ncias remotas das TSM dos Oceanos Pac{\'{\i}}fico e
Atl{\^a}ntico e da oscila{\c{c}}{\~a}o Ant{\'a}rtica na
variabilidade clim{\'a}tica interanual no Rio Grande do Sul e
suas inter-rela{\c{c}}{\~o}es",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2012",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2012-10-05",
keywords = "variabilidade clim{\'a}tica, El Niņo/oscila{\c{c}}{\~a}o sul,
oscila{\c{c}}{\~a}o decenal do Pac{\'{\i}}fico, Atl{\^a}ntico
Sudoeste, clima do Rio Grande do Sul, climate variability, El Niņo
/ Southern oscilation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, Southwest
Atlantic, climate of Rio Grande do Sul.",
abstract = "O presente trabalho investiga o impacto sazonal das anomalias de
Temperatura da Superf{\'{\i}}cie do Mar (TSM) do
Pac{\'{\i}}fico Equatorial (NINO3.4), Pac{\'{\i}}fico Sul (PS)
e Atl{\^a}ntico Sudoeste (ATSW), al{\'e}m do {\'{\i}}ndice de
Oscila{\c{c}}{\~a}o Ant{\'a}rtica (OA), na variabilidade
interanual das temperaturas m{\'a}ximas e m{\'{\i}}nimas e das
precipita{\c{c}}{\~o}es no Rio Grande do Sul (RS), considerando
as fases da Oscila{\c{c}}{\~a}o Decenal do Pac{\'{\i}}fico
(ODP). Examina-se tamb{\'e}m as inter-rela{\c{c}}{\~o}es
sazonais destes mesmos {\'{\i}}ndices e se estes podem ser
modulados pela ODP. O per{\'{\i}}odo analisado foi de 1900 a
2006, compreendendo duas fases negativas e duas positivas da ODP.
Para tais an{\'a}lises, foram utilizadas correla{\c{c}}{\~o}es
cruzadas totais e parciais, tabelas de conting{\^e}ncia avaliadas
pelo escore das caracter{\'{\i}}sticas operacionais relativas
(ROC), e seus resultados foram comparados considerando suas
vantagens e limita{\c{c}}{\~o}es. Quanto {\`a} ocorr{\^e}ncia
dos eventos extremos de ENSO, ATSW, PS e OA, notou-se que a fase
da ODP influencia na dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o (NINO3.4, ATSW e OA) e na
frequ{\^e}ncia (ATSW e OA) dos eventos, mas n{\~a}o na
intensidade, e que o PS {\'e} o que sofre menor impacto da ODP. A
an{\'a}lise de ondaletas cruzadas mostrou que ENOS e ODP
interagem em todas as escalas de tempo. Todas as
rela{\c{c}}{\~o}es entre os {\'{\i}}ndices foram afetadas
pelas fases da ODP, seja na intensidade, na sazonalidade ou
defasagem. Observou-se que, em geral, os impactos s{\~a}o mais
fortes na fase negativa da ODP. Quanto aos impactos destes
{\'{\i}}ndices no clima do RS, observou-se que todos influenciam
conjuntamente, com diferentes intensidades, defasagens,
sazonalidade e de forma assim{\'e}trica, mas algumas
combina{\c{c}}{\~o}es podem intensificar a ocorr{\^e}ncia dos
extremos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e de temperaturas
m{\'a}ximas e m{\'{\i}}nimas. A combina{\c{c}}{\~a}o El Niņo
(La Niņa), ATSW acima (abaixo) das normais, PS e OA abaixo (acima)
das normais, no outono e inverno, {\'e} a que maximiza a
ocorr{\^e}ncia de precipita{\c{c}}{\~o}es acima (abaixo) das
normais na primavera e no ver{\~a}o seguintes. No caso das
temperaturas m{\'{\i}}nimas (m{\'a}ximas) abaixo (acima) das
normais no outono e no inverno, a melhor combina{\c{c}}{\~a}o
{\'e} La Niņa (El Niņo), ATSW abaixo (acima) das normais, PS e AO
acima (abaixo das normais) na primavera e no ver{\~a}o
antecedentes. Na fase negativa da ODP, as chances de
ocorr{\^e}ncia destes extremos aumentam para todas as
combina{\c{c}}{\~o}es. No caso das temperaturas m{\'a}ximas, as
rela{\c{c}}{\~o}es ainda podem ser intensas na fase positiva da
ODP, por{\'e}m em diferentes {\'e}pocas do ano (em geral nas
esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es quentes), e os sinais do ENOS e do PS se
invertem, ocorrendo mais eventos extremos de temperaturas
m{\'a}ximas associados {\`a}s La Niņas e ao PS acima das
normais. Estudos de caso para as principais
combina{\c{c}}{\~o}es apresentam resultados coerentes com o
esperado, mostrando que o m{\'e}todo desenvolvido neste trabalho
{\'e} eficaz e pode ser utilizado como uma ferramenta no
aux{\'{\i}}lio {\`a}s previs{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas sazonais.
ABSTRACT: The present study investigates the seasonal impact of
Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies
(NINO3.4), Southern Pacific (SP), Southwestern Atlantic (SWAT) and
Antarctic Oscillation index (AO), on the interannual variability
of precipitations, maximum and minimum temperatures in the Rio
Grande do Sul (RS), and accounting for the phases of Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Seasonal inter- relationships between
these indices are evaluated, as well as its possible modulation by
PDO. The analyzed time period was from 1900 to 2006, including two
negative and two positive phases of PDO. The following
methodologies were used and compared for these analyses: Partial
and total crossed correlations, contingency tables evaluated by
the score of Relative Operational Characteristics (ROC), and cross
wavelets. Regarding the ENSO, SWAT, SP and AO extreme occurrences,
it was noted that PDO phase influences the event duration
(NINO3.4. SWAT, and AO) and frequency (SWAT and AO), but not the
intensity, and that the SP is the least impacted region. Moreover,
cross wavelets analysis revealed that ENOS and PDO interact in all
time scales. Actually, PDO phase affected all relations between
the indices, even the intensity, seasonality or time lag. It was
noted that the impact is more intense mostly on the negative phase
of PDO. Regarding the impact in the RS climate, it was observed
that all the indices have an influence in conjunction, differing
in intensity, time lag, seasonality and often asymmetrically, but
some combinations can intensify even more the extreme events in
precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures in the RS. It was
found that, in autumn and winter, the combination of El Niņo (La
Niņa), SWAT above (below) normal, SP and AO below (above) normal,
are that maximizes the above (below) normal precipitation
occurrences in the following spring and summer. For the occurrence
of minimum (maximum) temperatures below (above) normal during
autumn and winter, the best combination is La Niņa (El Niņo), SWAT
below (above) normal, SP and AO above (below) normal in the
previous spring and summer. During the negative phase of PDO,
there are higher chances for all combinations for occurrence of
such extreme events. In the positive phase of PDO intense impacts
can still be found, particularly for the maximum temperatures, but
it happens in warmer seasons (spring and summer) when the signals
of ENOS and SP are inverted, accounting for a higher number of
maximum temperature extremes associated to La Niņa and SP above
normal. Case studies for the main combinations presented coherent
results as expected, showing the effectiveness of the method
herein developed, creating good perspectives for its use as an
auxiliary tool for climate seasonal forecasts.",
committee = "Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi (presidente) and Sansigolo, Cl{\'o}vis
Angeli (orientador) and Ferreira, Nelson Jesuz and Garcia,
S{\^a}mia Regina and Grimm, Alice Marlene",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "Remote influences of the Pacific and Atlantic TSM and Antarctic
oscillation on the interannual climate variability in the Rio
Grande do Sul and their inter-relationships",
language = "pt",
pages = "234",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP7W/3CLLRCE",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP7W/3CLLRCE",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "08 maio 2024"
}